Valdosta, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXUS62 KTAE 250825
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
425 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening over the inland FL Panhandle, southeast Alabama and parts
of southwest Georgia.

A weak wave of low pressure will move today from the Ozarks to the
Lower Ohio Valley. This will enhance our low-level southerly flow
today. The somewhat loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms
trailing from this feature should generally remain north of our
service area, but the enhanced southerly flow will push a fairly
sharp seabreeze front inland and northeast from the Emerald Coast
this afternoon. Along this focusing feature, isolated
thunderstorms could develop over the inland Panhandle north of
I-10, then push northeastward across the Alabama Wiregrass and
the Chattahoochee Valley. Limiting factors will be Precipitable
Water (PW) values well under 1.5 inches, inhibition due to warm
dry mid-level air, and weak bulk shear below 20 knots.

Meanwhile, locations north of the U.S. 82 corridor could get
brushed by the southern periphery of the loosely organized
clusters of convection to the north this evening.

Otherwise, early morning fog will be the other concern. Surface
obs are already showing nearly saturated air and worsening
visibility over the inland Panhandle. A Dense Fog Advisory was
recently issued over inland areas from the Apalachicola River
westward, plus Geneva and Coffee Counties in Alabama. We may
eventually need to expand the advisory to include more of
southeast Alabama and perhaps far southwest Georgia. Early
Saturday morning, a similar round of fog is likely over the FL
Panhandle and SE Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A mid-level high pressure ridge will nudge in across the northern
Gulf Coast on Saturday, and then flatten on Sunday as a weak
shortwave trough rounds the northern periphery of the ridge.

The ridging on Saturday should effectively suppress convection. As
the mid-level ridge starts to flatten on Saturday night, a washed
out front will move south, arriving near the I-10 corridor on
Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, this weak feature will
provide a bit more low-level focus once the seabreeze front makes
its inland intrusion. In addition, the weak shortwave trough and
a weak height fall center passing across Georgia should add a
little upper level kick for convection while eroding some of the
mid-level cap. So Sunday looks like the most favorable day for
convection out of the next 5 days, especially over inland areas.

Meanwhile, the washed out trough that spreads in from the north
will act as a thermal trough to support hot temperatures on Sunday
afternoon... the hottest temps out of the next 7 days. High
temperatures in the lower 90s will be common over inland areas,
with a few mid 90s expected over the inland FL Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A fairly strong mid-level ridge will expand and amplify from the
southwest to northeast Gulf from Monday through Wednesday. By
Tuesday and Wednesday, this will suppress convection with its warm
and dry mid-level air. However on Monday, a back door cold front
will try to cross southwest past the I-75 corridor... before
dissipating. For Monday, added low-level convergence from this
feature could bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms, especially
for the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley.

On Thursday, the strong mid-level ridge will start to weaken and
retreat toward the southern Gulf. This retreat will open the door
to some westerly or southwest flow aloft, while lowering heights
will weaken the mid-level cap of warm and dry air. Isolated
thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Thursday and increase
further next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Main focus for the rest of tonight into early this morning are
fog/low stratus. Highest confidence in flt restrictions are at ECP
where vsbys/cigs dip into the IFR/LIFR range. The next best
potential is DHN/ABY for MVFR conds. There is a chance that VLD
sees brief low vsbys from the east. Otherwise, lgt/vrb winds
prevail before picking up out of the S-to-SW in the aftn. Added a
PROB30 for -TSRA at DHN/ABY near the end of this TAF to acct for
isolated convection invof of those sites based on the 0Z HRRR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Moderate southeast breezes are expected this morning, as weak low
pressure moves by to the north. A high pressure center will be
centered over the northeast or northern Gulf from Saturday through
Monday. On Tuesday, a ridge axis extending westward from a Bermuda
high will bridge westward across south Georgia and then north
Florida.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

The main fire weather highlights continue to revolve around daily
chances for morning fog, pockets of high afternoon dispersions, and
unseasonably hot conditions with a diurnal seabreeze. For today, low
rain chances are in place for the Dothan-Albany area. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible at those locations late afternoon into
early this evening. Southerly low-level winds keep min RH above
critical thresholds, or 35-40% away from the immediate coast. Winds
turn more southwesterly on Saturday, then switch out of the NE
mainly north of the FL state line.

Expect hot weather this weekend as forecast inland high temperatures
soar to the upper 80s/low 90s. Sunday is shaping up to be even
hotter with more widespread low 90s (isolated mid 90s).
A backdoor front sagging south may provide some relief via modest
increases in cloud cover and rain chances. The best potential for
precipitation and/or thunderstorms is along the I-75 corridor where
the front likely interacts favorably with the seabreeze(s). High
dispersions are forecast that afternoon along/north of the I-10
corridor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   83  66  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        88  64  90  65 /  20  10  10  10
Albany        88  65  90  65 /  10  20  10   0
Valdosta      90  65  92  66 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    89  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  66  80  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ007>013.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ this morning
     through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065-068.

GM...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through late
     tonight for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Haner